Clinton clings to fragile lead

Hillary Clinton enters the final weekend of this historic presidential campaign with a small-but-real lead over Donald Trump — nationally and in enough key states to be elected president.

Polls show clear gains for Trump over the past few weeks, though there are some inconclusive suggestions in the data that the Republican’s momentum may have been arrested this week, with the bombshell letter from FBI Director James Comey farther in the rear-view mirror.

Clinton’s lead isn’t secure. There is ample precedent for the polls to be off the mark by a sufficient margin for Trump to win the national popular vote. And despite the conventional wisdom that Clinton has an Electoral College advantage, Trump’s rise in the polls has exposed the cracks in that firewall.

Here are five numbers that underscore Clinton’s lead — and its fragility:

Two national polls released Friday night offer similar overall results: A Fox News poll shows Clinton leading Trump by 2 percentage points, while the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, conducted over roughly the same time frame, shows Clinton ahead by 4 points.

But beneath the topline numbers, there are key differences in the two surveys.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll — the most recent rolling average is composed of interviews conducted Monday through Thursday — indicates enthusiasm for Clinton, which tapered off after Comey’s letter last week, has rebounded.

A 52-percent majority of Clinton supporters now say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for her, equal to the 51 percent of Trump supporters “very enthusiastic” about him.

Enthusiasm for Trump has been relatively stable, ranging between 49 percent and 53 percent over the two weeks of the tracking poll.

But enthusiasm for Clinton has been more tumultuous. Over the first four nights, 49 percent of Clinton voters were “very enthusiastic,” but that dipped to the mid 40s after Comey’s letter.

The recovery was abrupt. In the four nights previous to the poll’s release — Sunday through Wednesday — Clinton’s “very enthusiastic” share was 47 percent. But dropping Sunday’s interviews and adding Thursday’s increased that figure 5 points.

The Fox News poll, however, holds a nugget that suggests there is an enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP nominee. More Trump voters (71 percent) say they “strongly support” their choice than Clinton voters (65 percent).

Similarly, more Trump supporters say they are “extremely interested” in the election (63 percent) than Clinton supporters (54 percent).

But, as Democrats will note, the final Fox News poll of the 2012 election showed Mitt Romney’s supporters more interested in the election, and more likely to say it was really important who won.

Comey’s letter gave Trump’s numbers a short-term jolt, but the real uptick in his poll numbers came in the week leading up to it.

 
-politico